Increasing early weather warning systems’ coverage

Over the decades, the impacts of the increasing climate crisis-related disasters have exacerbated the loss and damage to life, property, economy and biodiversity. According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the number of disasters has increased five-fold during 1970-2019. The Anthropocene proposes the geological epoch of human activities, which causes the planet to endure catastrophic changes that damage human societies and the earth’s living and non-living ecosystems.
In September 2024, devastating floods hit four continents across Europe, Asia, Africa, and North America. European countries like Poland, Austria, and the Czech Republic saw record-breaking rains due to Storm Boris causing floods. In Asia, China was struck by Typhoon Bebinca, and in Vietnam, Super Typhoon Yagi caused severe damage, disrupting supply chains and causing losses to property. In Africa, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon saw heavy monsoon rains affecting millions by displacing communities and damaging crops and livestock. The southeastern United States (US) coast faced torrential rains, causing localised floods. These floods exemplify the severe consequences of the climate crisis and the need to prepare and prevent populations from such damages in future.
Developing an early weather warning system has become public policy’s core disaster prevention strategy. United Nations (UN) Secretary-General (SG) António Guterres asserts that early warning systems work, save lives, and deliver financial benefits. An early warning system, according to WMO, can reduce the damage by 30% if an early warning is issued within 24 hours. An estimated $ 3-16 billion annually in losses globally can be avoided through early warning systems. The UN SG urges all governments, financial institutions and civil society to support the UN’s Early Warnings for All: Executive Action Plan 2023-2027.
According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), weather warning systems are an integrated system of technological tools to monitor, predict, assess disaster risks, communicate and prepare individuals, communities, governments, businesses, and others for timely action to reduce disaster risks in advance of hazardous events. They seamlessly integrate meteorological forecasting, communication technology, and public awareness to prepare populations and communities by disseminating alerts and warnings.
WMO’s statistics indicate that one-third, about 30%, of the global population is yet to be covered by early warning systems. Thus, the UN SG calls for an inclusive early warning system that covers everyone. He said, “Today, one-third of the world’s people, mainly in least developed countries and small island developing states, are still not covered by early warning systems… This is unacceptable, particularly with climate impacts sure to get even worse.” The Global Status of Early Warning Systems: Target G report underlines that only 50% of countries have early warning systems. Their coverage is low in the least developed countries (LDCs), small island developing states (SIDS), and Africa.
Further, coverage is low even for those countries with early warning systems. The WMO was tasked to lead the Executive Action Plan to gather investments of up to $ 3.1 billion over five years to implement the four Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) pillars. WMO will coordinate with the UNDRR and other UN agencies. The action plan includes four essential pillars of an early warning system—(a) disaster risk knowledge, (b) detection, observation, monitoring, and forecasting, (c) warning dissemination and communication, and (d) preparedness and response capabilities.
The Plan seeks to enhance the technical capacity to detect hazards, close the observation gap, and advance global forecast data processing systems by optimising international efforts. In terms of financing mechanisms, it emphasises strengthening the Climate Risk and Early Warnings Systems (CREWS) initiative and Green Climate Fund and the operationalisation of the Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF).
Most vulnerable countries like LDCs and SIDS require multilateral support to reduce loss of life and other damages. These countries receive support from the CREWS initiative for early warning systems that allow people access to adequate, risk-informed, gender-responsive, and people-centred early warning systems. CREWS has invested over $ 100 million in LDCs and SIDS countries. CREWS respond to their early warning needs through other stakeholders, including implementing partners, WMO, World Bank and UNDRR via country and regional projects in this regard. Then, the SOFF provides countries with primary surface-based observational data, critical to improving weather forecasts and climate services. In addition to technical support, SOFF provides long-term financial assistance to complement the existing funding initiatives. SOFF is essential for early warning systems due to its global approach to exchanging international data sustainably, financing mechanisms, enhancing existing technical competence, and leveraging knowledge and resources.
Early warning systems have been critical to several the climate crisis bodies or documents like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, and the Paris Agreement. These systems are also incorporated as one of the sustainable measures to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development for achieving SDG goals.
The Executive Plan is a critical input to prepare the governments, businesses, populations, and civil society in this direction. The inputs are detailed at different levels—policy, financing and technical across all four pillars. It serves as a framework for implementation that concretizes the early preventive actions covering all stakeholders. It has produced an inclusive and people-centred approach to collaborating with local networks and actors. It leverages community-based infrastructures such as indigenous knowledge systems and community-based flood and drought management.
The pillar—‘preparedness to respond’ to early warnings should be seen in live-saving actions. First, preparedness is done at the policy, technical and financial levels. Then, preparedness is translated into actions by engaging the actors on the ground—national and local authorities, businesses, communities, NGOs, and the International Federation of Red Cross Red Crescent Societies. This prevention stage is to be accompanied by monitoring and evaluating the preparedness and the actions taken on the ground. The early warnings and action guidelines can be disseminated to the national/regional/local authorities and the public in general by taking advantage of mobile devices and the Internet,
Thus, strengthening the effectiveness of early warning systems followed by sustained preventive actions and collaboration across agencies (national and international) can save lives, reduce losses, and make communities more resilient to climate crisis-related disasters.
This article is authored by Mehdi Hussain, research associate, Indian Council of World Affairs & former assistant professor of political science, Kirori Mal College, University of Delhi.